Author Archives: Scott Grassick

Raising standards in the tax advice market – new consultation

The Government’s consultation exploring options to improve the regulatory framework around standards in the tax advice market.

The new consultation, which was promised back in November 2021 – please see our earlier Bulletin – sets out three possible approaches to strengthening the framework:

  • mandatory membership of a recognised professional body;
  • joint HMRC – industry enforcement; and
  • regulation by a separate statutory Government body.

The consultation also explores approaches to strengthen the controls on access to HMRC’s services for tax practitioners.

It will be of interest to providers of tax advice and services, their clients or potential clients and tax and accountancy professional and regulatory bodies – basically, anyone who may receive or provide tax advice or offers services to third parties to assist compliance with HMRC requirements. This includes, for example, accountants, tax advisers, legal professionals, payroll professionals, bookkeepers, insolvency practitioners, financial advisers, customs intermediaries, charities and other voluntary organisations that help people with their tax affairs, software providers, employment agencies, umbrella companies and other intermediaries who arrange for the provision of workers to those who pay for their services, people who engage workers off-payroll, promoters, enablers and facilitators of tax avoidance schemes, professional and regulatory bodies, and clients, or potential clients, of all those listed above.

However, the Government says that it wants to avoid increasing burdens on professionals that are already robustly regulated. So, it proposes to exclude groups of tax practitioners who interact with HMRC that are already subject to statutory regulation, including those in regulated professions such as legal services, insolvency, audit, licensed conveyancers, and independent financial advisers. The Government says that, as these professionals are already subject to robust regulation, where this regulation extends to the provision of tax advice or services, it proposes to exclude them from this requirement. In detail, this is likely to include (but are not limited to):

  • legal professionals providing tax services regulated by an ‘approved regulator’ within the meaning of the Legal Services Act 2007 and Legal Services (Scotland) Act 2010, and the Law Society of Northern Ireland by virtue of the Legal Complaints and Regulation Act (Northern Ireland) 2016;
  • professionals who are regulated in accordance with the Pensions Regulator, Prudential Regulatory Authority, Financial Conduct Authority, Insolvency Service, Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, and the Funeral Planning Authority.

The consultation seeks views on:

  • potential approaches to raising standards;
  • whether the Government should pursue introducing a requirement for paid tax practitioners to be a member of a recognised professional body that supervises their professional standards;
  • how professional bodies and the Government can work together to raise standards of tax practitioners;
  • which groups of tax practitioners should be in scope or excluded from the proposed option;
  • a first step of mandating registration with HMRC for tax practitioners who wish to interact with HMRC on behalf of their clients, and the requirements that HMRC should establish to enable registration.

The consultation asks a number of questions, which are summarised below:

1: Do you agree the limitations in the partial framework across the tax advice market contribute to issues observed? Select all that apply and please give reasons for your answer:

  • no requirements of technical competence to practice;
  • no general deterrents for dishonest practitioners operating in the market;
  • disjointed monitoring of tax practitioners;
  • variations in the action taken against substandard and unscrupulous tax practitioners;
  • clients being unable to easily assess the competence of a tax practitioner;
  • other (please specify).

2: Are there other components of a regulatory framework that would support the delivery of these objectives?

3: Is there anything else that the Government should consider?

4: Do you think the Government should mandate the approach to registration for tax practitioners who wish to interact with HMRC? If no, please give reasons for your answer.

5: What are your views on the intention to apply the requirement to all tax practitioners who interact in any way with HMRC in a professional capacity?

6: HMRC currently applies several checks at the point of registration including: whether the tax practitioner has outstanding debt and/or, returns with HMRC, and the status of their AML supervision. Are there additional checks that the Government should consider for tax practitioners at the point of registration with HMRC?

7: Are there specific criteria or checks HMRC should apply if:

  • an individual, who has previously registered a company with HMRC as a tax practitioner, and attempts to register a new company?
  • a tax practitioner operating as a sole trader becomes incorporated?

8: Which approach do you think would best meet the objectives set out in chapter 4? Please give reasons for your answer:

  • approach 1: mandatory membership of a recognised professional body;
  • approach 2: joint HMRC-industry enforcement;
  • approach 3: regulation by a government body.

9: What are your views of the merits and problems of the three potential approaches described in this chapter?

10: Are there any other approaches to raising standards the Government should consider?

11: Do you think membership with a professional body raises and maintains standards of tax practitioners? Please give reasons for your answer.

12: What is your view of the capacity and capability of professional bodies to undertake greater supervision of tax practitioners?

13: What more could the professional bodies do to uphold and raise standards for their members?

14: What additional costs may professional bodies face if strengthening their supervisory processes?

15: What is the best way to ensure current and new professional bodies maintain high standards?

16: What role could the professional bodies play in supporting the clients of their members?

17: Should Government consider strengthening customer support options beyond the current complaints processes offered by professional bodies? Please give reasons for your answer.

18: What role should HMRC/the Government play under approach 1: mandatory membership of a recognised professional body?

19: Do you agree that the requirement should only apply to those who interact with HMRC? Please give reasons for your answer.

20: Do you agree that the requirement should only apply to controlling or principals of firms? Please give reasons for your answer.

21: Are there any other regulated professions that should be excluded from this requirement?

22: How can the Government ensure members of regulated professions have high standards in relation to their work providing tax advice or services?

23: What are your views of the proposed exclusions?

24: Do you think the following tax practitioners should be in scope of the requirement to become a member of a professional body member? Select all practitioner types you think should be in scope and please give reasons for you answer:

  • charities interacting with HMRC on behalf of taxpayers;
  • tax practitioners providing Pro-bono services;
  • promoters and enablers of tax avoidance;
  • overseas/offshore practitioners;
  • other (please specify).

25: What could be the consequences of introducing a legal definition of a provider of tax advice and services?

26: What gaps or issues can you see arising because of this definition?

27: How could unaffiliated tax practitioners be transitioned into professional body membership?

28: Should a legacy scheme be adopted? Please give reasons for your answer.

29: Do you agree a transition period of three years would give sufficient time for the market to adapt to the introduction of mandatory professional body members? Please give reasons for your answer.

30: What future developments would need to be accounted for in implementing mandatory professional body membership?

This consultation closes at 11:59pm on 29 May 2024. HMRC says that it will publish a summary of responses as soon as possible after the consultation period.

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Marriage allowance: new claims process

Marriage allowance. A recent update from HMRC on the marriage allowance transfer claim form (MATCF).

As a reminder, the marriage allowance allows married couples/civil partners, born after April 1935, to transfer 10% of their personal allowance if one partner earns an income below their personal allowance of £12,570 and the other partner is a basic rate taxpayer.

So, an individual can transfer £1,260 of their personal allowance to their higher-earning partner, to reduce the amount of tax they pay. This means couples can reduce the income tax they pay by up to £252 (i.e. £1,260 x 20%).

According to HMRC’s latest Agent Update, the new MATCF form is available to view now.

All agents submitting a MATCF repayment claim on behalf of their clients, and who are wanting to receive the repayment directly, will need to use the new form from 26 February 2024. The new form can be found on Apply for Marriage Allowance by post.

HMRC says that the previous versions of the MATCF claim form should have been used until the new version went live on 26 February 2024. Any new forms dated and submitted to HMRC before 26 February 2024 will be rejected.

HMRC has also warned that, from 26 February 2024 onwards, form MATCF needs to be submitted on paper to HMRC exactly as it prints out on GOV.UK. The form should not be amended or changed. However, HMRC has added that,

“…if it is absolutely essential for your internal processes (for example, you need to add a company logo or bar code reference to the form to connect it to your own systems) you may replicate, print and submit the form. You can only make changes in the white space at the top of the form. Any other changes or additions outside of the white space at the top of the form will result in the claim being rejected and returned to the agent, who will need to submit again using the correct format.”

The updated claim form includes:

  • a question to ask if the taxpayer is nominating a professional that charges a fee for their services to act on their behalf;
  • a space to capture the nominated agent’s Agent Reference Number (if an agent is acting on behalf of a client).

From 26 February 2024, anyone making a claim on behalf of others, or wanting to receive a repayment on behalf of their client, will need to provide their Agent Reference Number when submitting a MATCF form. There is a required field to complete the Agent Reference Number. Failure to add the Agent Reference Number to the designated nomination section on or after 26 February 2024 will result in repayments for valid claims being paid directly to the taxpayer, not the nominated third party.

Clients will also need to have completed the section which informs HMRC whether they are nominating a professional to act on their behalf for the purposes of the repayment claim. Failure to select ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ in the appropriate section could also result in repayments for valid claims being paid directly to the taxpayer, not the nominated third party.

This is all part of an effort by HMRC to prevent taxpayers from being charged excessive fees to obtain small tax repayment claims. Please see our earlier Bulletin. Similar changes also apply to claims for a tax refund for work related expenses, using form P87. Please see: Claim tax relief for your job expenses if you cannot claim online.

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Self-assessment statistics highlight the need for software under MTD

HMRC statistics, which show that only almost 60% of self-assessment return filings made during the past tax year were by agents.

According to HMRC, a record-breaking 11.5 million taxpayers submitted their self-assessment tax returns for the 2022/23 tax year by midnight on 31 January.

More than 12.1 million taxpayers were expected to file a tax return and pay any tax owed. Of those that met their obligations by the deadline, 778,068 beat the clock to complete it on 31 January, including:

  • 61,549 taxpayers who filed between 16:00 and 16:59 – the peak hour for filing;
  • 32,958 taxpayers who filed between 23:00 and 23:59.

AccountingWEB has obtained data from HMRC which shows that, of the 11.2 million self-assessment tax returns filed before the deadline of 31 January 2024, 59% (more than 6.6 million) were filed by agents – a term which includes professional tax agents and family members or similar completing the return on behalf of someone else.

The figure of 6.6 million returns filed by agents is similar to its 2020 equivalent (the last year HMRC provided data for), and in percentage terms has slightly declined in those four years.

When looking at the past four self-assessment deadline years split into who is making the filing (agent vs taxpayer) and how the return is filed (HMRC’s self-assessment portal vs third-party tax filing software), AccountingWEB found that the split in terms of agent vs taxpayer seemed roughly equal. This suggests a high number of individuals are not relying on agents to deal with their tax returns.

In addition, the figures highlighted the growth in individual taxpayers using HMRC’s self-assessment portal, with almost 4.5 million filing in this way – close to a million more than the corresponding figure in 2020. 97% of individual filings were made using HMRC’s self-assessment portal. In comparison, just 2.91% of individuals used third-party tax filing software, with the percentage figure for this actually in decline since 2020. This statistic alone highlights the scale of the challenge ahead for HMRC’s Making Tax Digital (MTD) ambitions. 

The current timetable for MTD income tax self-assessment (MTD ITSA) mandation – please see our earlier Bulletin – means that HMRC’s self-assessment portal for in-scope, unrepresented, taxpayers will be shut off from April 2026, and instead, more than 700,000 taxpayers (with a qualifying income of more than £50,000) will be required to buy third-party tax filing software, with a further 900,000 (above the income threshold of £30,000) brought in for the following year.

Qualifying income is the combined income that an individual gets in a tax year from self-employment and property income sources. It is the individual’s gross income or turnover before they deduct expenses. Sources of income such as income from employment, dividends or savings, do not count towards qualifying income.

An estimated 1.1 million taxpayers missed the deadline. As a reminder, the penalties for late tax returns are:

  • an initial £100 fixed penalty, which applies even if there is no tax to pay, or if the tax due is paid on time;
  • after three months, additional daily penalties of £10 per day, up to a maximum of £900;
  • after six months, a further penalty of 5% of the tax due or £300, whichever is greater;
  • after 12 months, another 5% or £300 charge, whichever is greater.

There are also additional penalties for paying outstanding tax late. These are 5% of that unpaid at 30 days, six months and 12 months. Interest will also be charged on any tax paid late.

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The ability to remotely witness a Will has ended

As no last-minute extension was announced by the Government, Wills can no longer be witnessed by video link.

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, in simple terms a validly executed Will was:

  1. In writing
  2. Signed by the person making it (‘the testator’), in the physical presence of two independent witnesses; and
  3. The witnesses have signed it in the presence of the person making it.


Lockdown restrictions suddenly created the need for change and, so, the Government amended Section 9 of the Wills Act 1837 to say that, in relation to Wills made after 31 January 2020, “presence” includes presence by means of video conference or other visual transmission, so that witnesses to Wills did not need to be physically present at the signing, but could be legally present, over a video link. Section 9 of the Wills Act 1837 states:

(1) No will shall be valid unless—

(a) it is in writing, and signed by the testator, or by some other person in his presence and by his direction; and

(b) it appears that the testator intended by his signature to give effect to the will; and

(c) the signature is made or acknowledged by the testator in the presence of two or more witnesses present at the same time; and

(d) each witness either—

(i) attests and signs the will; or

(ii) acknowledges his signature,

in the presence of the testator (but not necessarily in the presence of any other witness),

but no form of attestation shall be necessary.

[(2) For the purposes of paragraphs (c) and (d) of subsection (1), in relation to wills made on or after 31 January 2020 and on or before 31 January [2024], “presence” includes presence by means of videoconference or other visual transmission.]

The process of video witnessing of Wills was applied for an initial two-year period from 31 January 2020, but was then further extended to 31 January 2024.

The Law Commission has undertaken a consultation, which ended in December 2023, seeking views on whether a new Wills Act should permit electronic wills, either immediately or by allowing for them to be introduced later. Please see our earlier Bulletin. We will of course update you on the results of that consultation.

However, unless the Government reintroduces video witnessing of Wills, this is no longer an option and witnesses must be in person. The ability to witness a Will’s execution by video link has ended.

Comment

Whilst social distancing and lockdown restrictions made remote witnessing a necessity for all for a time, it is not at all clear just how popular this method was as time went on, given that the process is far more complicated than simply having to have two witnesses physically present. Although, of course, the challenges faced by those wanting to make a Will and who were (and still are) also shielding and isolating have not gone away.

New life expectancy figures releases

A new report suggests that the State Pension Age may need to rise to 71 by 2050

The current legislated trajectory for the State Pension Age (SPA) is for an increase to 67 between 2026 and 2028, followed by another notch up to 68 between 2046 and 2048, although the 68 timing could change. Following an independent review and DWP review last year, the Government kicked the decision on whether to bring forward an SPA of 68 until a further study is completed after the general election. This was a repetition of the manoeuvre it had executed ahead of the 2019 election (please see our earlier Bulletin) in response to the Cridland Review. Controversially, Cridland had proposed a 2037-39 introduction for an SPA of 68 based on Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2014-based mortality data.

The topic of the SPA is kryptonite for politicians and has been made worse by the path of pensioner life expectancy over recent years (please see, for example, this recent Bulletin). It becomes much harder to justify SPA increases when life expectancy improvements are flatlining. However, life expectancy is not the only financial justification for raising the SPA. Another that is relevant for pay-as-you-go pension systems, such as the UK State Pension, is the old age dependency ratio – basically the number of workers (aged 16-64) per state pensioner.

A new report from the International Longevity Centre (ILC) says by 2050 the SPA needs to rise to between 70 and 71 to maintain the current status quo in terms of dependency ratio. It could be worse: the ILC says that if the UK’s working adult population is defined as 20 to 64 years, to account for time spent in full time education, the SPA might need to hit age 70+ as early as 2040 to maintain the current dependency ratio. The ILC accepts that the recent stalling in life expectancy during the austerity years and COVID has temporarily eased the pressure for increases in the SPA beyond 67 after 2027, but reckons that, in longer-term, the pressure will be to increase the SPA to 68 or 69 before 2040.

The ILC says that in the UK the problem becomes even more pressing because of the exit of workers from the workforce long before SPA, as it reduces the tax base to pay for pensions. Poor health is one of the key reasons for this workforce decline, which the ILC regards as one of the greatest barriers to economic prosperity currently faced by the UK. Research shows that, by age 70, at present only 50% of adults are disability-free and able to work.

The ILC calculates that if the proportion of the economically active population were to increase from current levels of around 78% to 85%, then it may be possible to hold the SPA at below 70 from 2040 – at least for a few years.

Comment

If the next Government is going to adopt the Cridland timing of 2037-39 and stay with the principle of giving at least ten years notice of an SPA change, it will need to commission that fresh study almost as soon as it enters office.

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The abolition of the lifetime allowance from 6 April 2024 – an overview

How the new rules will limit tax-free lump sum payments in lifetime and on death

The lifetime allowance (LTA) will be abolished on 5 April 2024. It will be replaced by a new set of rules that will instead limit tax-free lump sum payments both in lifetime and on death. There will be no limits on any funds used to provide a taxable pension income.

Although no LTA charges have applied since 6 April 2023, for tax year 2023/24 the LTA framework has remained in place. This is an interim measure while HMRC work on a new set of rules to abolish the LTA entirely from 6 April 2024. HMRC have worked closely with the pensions industry to try and introduce a workable solution. Whilst there are a still a few technical issues to resolve, we now have a good idea of how the new rules are intended to work.

The aim is that there are no fundamental changes to the way pensions work. It’s just that new rules must be introduced to limit lump sum payments that were previously restricted by the LTA.

To read more in the full bulletin follow this link.

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Premium Bond prize rate cut

National Savings & Investments (NS&I) has announced it will lower the prize rate for premium bonds from 4.65% to 4.40% tax free from 1 March. The odds of winning will remain unaltered at 1 in 21,000.

The premium bond prize rate was increased last September (please see our earlier Bulletin), when the chances of winning were marginally improved, as well as the average prize. Those changes were announced shortly after the Bank (Base) Rate was lifted by the Bank of England to its current level of 5.25%. The March nudge downwards could therefore be seen as pre-empting the likely next move by the Bank, although at present few commentators see a cut arriving as early as March.

The pattern of March’s prize distribution is detailed below along with the current distribution for comparison. The most notable feature is that there will be many more £25 prizes and correspondingly fewer larger prizes.

Comment

The prize rate remains higher than on offer from any other variable rate NS&I product, reflecting the importance of premium bonds to NS&I in meeting its funding target. Given that the top instant access rates are around 5.2%, the bonds still look attractive for anyone who pays tax on interest.

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Selling online and paying taxes – new digital platform reporting rules

Why those selling goods and services online won’t be subject to a new tax, despite some information in the media over the past few days suggesting otherwise.

HMRC’s guidance has been updated with information regarding new digital platform reporting rules from 1 January 2024, and with additional examples of when someone may need to pay tax when selling goods or services via an online marketplace.

From 1 January 2024, new rules apply which require UK-based online platforms, e.g. a website or mobile phone app that handles and enables the sale of goods and services from individuals and/or businesses to customers, such as Ebay, Vinted, Uber and Deliveroo, to collect information about most people who make money through their platforms and then, on or before 31 January (for the preceding calendar year), to send this information to both HMRC and the individual themselves.

HMRC has had the power to ask platforms for information for a while now. This change means that UK based platforms will now have to report to HMRC every year, without being asked. These rules are part of a global initiative from the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development). HMRC won’t just collect and use data from UK platforms, but will also receive data from overseas platforms. The following transactions are captured:

  • Category A – those to do with property rental, vehicle rental or a personal service;
  • Category B – those to do with the sale of goods – although not if the individual occasionally sells goods for small amounts. (This is defined as less than 30 transactions during the calendar year for which the total amount made must not exceed 2000 Euros – both tests must be met for this exclusion to apply.)


Category A captures things like taxi and private hire services, food delivery services, freelance work and the letting of short-term accommodation through online platforms. Category B captures people who buy or make purposefully to sell; but not those who sell a few personal belongings every now and again, for example to declutter.

Therefore, people who make money via many different platforms, including the big ones like Uber, Deliveroo, Just Eat, Airbnb, TaskRabbit, Etsy and Ebay may all potentially be affected.  

Information shared with HMRC will include identifying information (name, address, date of birth, etc.) for sellers but also how much they’ve earned and bank account numbers / sort codes. For those letting property, details of the property will be included. This will help HMRC, and other tax authorities, match up information about taxpayers.

Anyone who sells goods or services on these platforms will get a copy of this information. They can use this information to check the amount of income and expenses incurred through these platforms, which may be helpful in determining whether tax is due on any profits.

However, these new rules do not create any new tax obligations for individuals and the existing rules about what platform income needs to be declared and who needs to register for a self-assessment tax return have not changed.

In particular, people selling unwanted personal items such as their children’s old clothes or toys are not likely to be trading. Therefore, even if it is a significant amount, any money they make is generally not taxable.

In order to pay tax on the goods or services sold online, the seller either has to be trading or making a capital gain. HMRC’s guidance confirms that, if the individual is just selling some unwanted items that have been laying around their home, such as the contents of a loft or garage, it is unlikely that they will have to pay tax.

If someone buys goods for resale, or makes goods with the intention of selling them for a profit, then they are likely to be trading and will have to pay tax on their profits. However, if their total income from trading or providing services online was less than £1,000 (before deducting expenses) in any tax year, they would not be required to inform HMRC nor pay any tax on the profits (this is due to the Trading and Miscellaneous Income Allowance).

HMRC’s examples, while not exhaustive, cover a range of common scenarios of selling goods online, and illustrate where tax might need to be paid on any profits made.

The Low Incomes Tax Reform Group (LITRG) is urging anyone who is concerned to read its detailed Q&A guidance to understand what is changing and what it means for them.

The new rules, which have caused a great deal of confusion, mean that HMRC will be receiving more information from online platforms than it was before. The new rules do not mean that everyone selling items on these platforms will be liable to pay tax.

When an individual is selling things they no longer want, e.g. books, toys, clothes etc., the reality is they are generally selling at less than they paid for them. Their activity is unlikely to be regular, organised or developed and they are not operating with a view to making a profit. They are therefore unlikely to be trading. The LITRG explains in what circumstances an individual is likely to be trading in its guidance: Tax if you work in the gig economy.

The data collected by platforms will be sent to both HMRC and the individual themselves by 31 January 2025.

However, the changes do mean that, if people who should have been reporting their income from online platforms have not been doing so, HMRC will be more likely to find out about it. Although, even then, if HMRC find out about income from online platforms, there are some legitimate reasons why people do not need to report it. 

Broadly, HMRC say that its necessary to register and send it a tax return unless: the individual has trading or miscellaneous income (before expenses are deducted) of under £1,000 and the trading allowance applies; or they are selling personal items that they no longer want.

It is also important to remember that, even if an individual’s activity is not captured by the new rules, they still need to check their position, as the money they are making could still be taxable. In particular, the following types of people probably still need to do something about their taxes:

  • if an individual falls within the ‘small’ Category B exemption mentioned above but are still trading;
  • if the individual is paid outside the platform for some element of their work, perhaps in cash or in kind or gifts;
  • if the individual has a business commercially selling direct to the public in fairs and boot sales as well as through a platform (for example, if they had an old antique coin business);
  • if the online platform account the individual works under is not in their name, but a friend or relative’s (meaning HMRC will think the income belongs to them).


If an individual is required to declare their income and they are not doing so, then they need to take some action to bring their tax affairs up to date. If they have not declared income for previous tax years, they may also need to take action to correct those years. Failure to meet tax obligations, including declaring certain income, can lead to penalties and interest charges. In rare instances, people selling high value personal items like jewellery and paintings may be caught by capital gains tax, which the LITRG explains further in its guidance: Selling shares and other assets.

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Divorce Day 2024 – January 2nd

Did you know lawyers often refer to the first day back to work as ‘Divorce Day’!?

Typically, post the festive period, lawyers and law firms see a substantial rise in divorce queries. The first Monday, or first working day of the year has even been termed ‘Divorce Day’.

Alarms are set earlier than we’d like them, waistbands and wallets are stretched uncomfortably. And expectations, as well as tensions, are at an all-time high.

But this year, new research by Legal & General suggests financial pressures, as a result of the cost-of-living crisis, have delayed 19% of divorces. This is approximately 270,000+ couples, who have had to delay getting divorced. All as a result of income fears.

Financial pressures are renowned for causing couples to split. But now it seems they may also be forcing them to have to stay together. The rising cost of everyday essentials, like food and bills, mean some can’t afford to maintain two households. Even those that can, may not be able to sell their current larger family home, or afford the new mortgage rates. 

The increase in money concerns also increases the likelihood that at least one of the divorcees isn’t going to feel the proceeds split is financially fair.

Here’s where we as financial advisers can help. Good financial advice increases the likelihood of a fair and equal split of assets in divorce. But it can also help a client protect their assets as divorcees are often unaware of what they are entitled to or legally required to share. A key focus area, in either case, should be on pensions, as often a pension pot is one of the client’s largest assets.

Separations, like pensions, are complex. So, if you are advising couples who are considering divorce, or advising couples still in the honeymoon phase, divorce should be considered and discussed as part of a long-term financial plan.

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The IFS wants a ‘four-point pension guarantee’ for the State Pension



In the run up to last month’s Autumn Budget, there was the usual will-he-won’t-he debate about whether the Chancellor would apply the triple lock to the State Pension. In the event there was none of the tweaking that occurred for the 2022 increase, so earnings growth (8.5%) was applied rather than CPI inflation (6.7%) or the floor (2.5%). As the graph above shows, the triple lock has danced around between all three options since it began life in 2011. The net effect is that in 2024/25 the State Pension will be 73.6% above its 2010/11 level, compared with cumulative earnings increases over the same period of 52.2% and price increases of 51.9%. Although that period is unusual in the virtual disappearance of real wage growth, the numbers highlight the affordability question that looms over the triple lock.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has looked at this topic many times and has now returned to it as part of a major Pension Review, undertaken in partnership with the abrdn Financial Fairness Trust. A new IFS report, ‘The future of the state pension’, sets out the challenges facing the State Pension and proposes a four-point guarantee as the new way forward.

The challenges

  1. The ageing population will add considerable pressure on public finances in coming decades. According to the projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), spending on the State Pension and other pensioner benefits will rise from 5.9% of GDP (£152bn) in 2023/24 to 7.6% of GDP (£197 billion in today’s terms) by 2050/51. The key drivers of this are a projected 25% more pensioners in 2050 and the triple lock.
  2. The triple lock ratchets up the value of, and spending on, the State Pension over time in a way that creates uncertainty around what the level of the State Pension will be relative to average earnings, and for the public finances. Compared with increasing the State Pension in line with average earnings, the IFS projects that the triple lock alone could cost anywhere between an additional £5bn and £40bn per year in 2050 in today’s terms. If that seems a wide range, look back at that graph.
  3. If the Government wants to rein in State Pension spending, then relying only on raising the State Pension Age to achieve this, rather than moving to less generous indexation, would hit those with lower life expectancy harder. The same increase in the State Pension Age has a larger proportional impact on the expected State Pension wealth of people who die at younger ages than for people who live longer. Similarly, people who die at younger ages do not benefit as much from the triple lock, which ratchets up the value of the State Pension over time. Groups with lower life expectancy include poorer people (compared with richer people).
  4. Despite its relative simplicity, there is a mixture of confusion and pessimism about the State Pension. Although the State Pension has increased at least as fast as inflation every year since 1975, polling conducted as part of the Pension Review revealed considerable scepticism about the future. 38% of respondents thought that State Pension rises will not keep up with inflation in the next ten years. Such pessimism extends to the survival of the State Pension: a third of respondents did not think the State Pension would exist in 30 years’ time.


The four-point guarantee

  1. A target level for the New State Pension will be set by the Government, expressed as a share of median full-time earnings to be achieved by a specified date. This echoes the approach to the National Living Wage (NLW), which in 2024 will reach its target of two thirds of median earnings (please see our earlier Bulletin). At present the State Pension is about 30% of median full-time earnings, which the triple lock will gradually – and randomly – ratchet up, if left in place.

The IFS considers it wiser for the Government to set a target and stick with it – as has happened with the NLW – rather than leave matters to the roll of the triple lock dice. Currently, each 1% increase as a proportion of median earnings would add about £5bn to the annual pensions bill. Increases in the State Pension would in the long run keep pace with growth in average earnings, which ensures that pensioners benefit when living standards rise.

  1. The State Pension will continue to increase at least in line with inflation every year, both before and after the target level is reached. To the extent this inflation minimum increase is triggered, future increases would be constrained to achieve the long-term earnings-related growth goal. The effect is demonstrated in the graph below:
  1. The State Pension will not be means-tested.
  2. The State Pension Age will only rise as longevity at older ages increases, and never by the full amount of that longevity increase. To increase confidence and understanding, the Government will write to people around their 50th birthday stating what their State Pension age is expected to be. Their State Pension Age would then be fully guaranteed ten years before they reach it.

Comment

In recent years, the triple lock has increasingly looked to be on borrowed time. Its short-term survival will depend on next year’s election manifestos. If either of the two main parties says it will maintain the triple lock for the next Parliament, the other party may feel no alternative but to replicate the promise.  

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